Dear Family, Friends and Good People,

I just was approved to get a new visa to re-enter Iraq. I will go in next week with the CPT delegation.

Two of us visited the Governor's office Monday to request a permit to vigil at the US Embassy. The governor explained he wasn't refusing the permit, just saying "not now" because the security issues were volatile and he was concerned about our safety. That was just after the day Tommy Franks was in town to negotiate US overflight and "discreet" presence of US troops. Those deals were denied by a fragile Jordan state yesterday. A majority Palestinian presence in the population and conservative Islamist movements don't make a US war popular.

Thursday we went to the US Embassy to visit with US Ambassador Ghnaim. The office was closed because of the King's birthday, so we just talked with private security guards and USMC Corporal Bauer. We shared with each one that we represented thousands of USonians who did not want a war in Iraq. Perhaps tomorrow we can set up a meeting.

As I understand it, we in the US are preparing a war to change the brutal regime in Iraq. It was at its most brutal when it had US political support and easy access to the US and European components for weapons of mass destruction. Now the war will not stop even if President Hussein goes into exile. So it is a military buildup to show global resolve in support of the UN inspection process and the destruction of all weapons of mass destruction.

That process is into its third month and is going well except the window for war, based on the weather extremes is soon closed. The process is going amazingly well, but has uncovered no WMD's. The US administration says that the inspectors have found the proof that Hussein is in material breech of the resolution. Blix in a follow-up press conference refutes the US accusations step by step; no WMD or excuse for war has been uncovered.

More deeply the war is to prevent Iraq from militarily threatening the US or its neighbors, perhaps through Al Qaeda. Iraq is as weak as it has been in decades. Its neighbors are opening trade and travel. No Iraqi weapons can reach the US or even Israel. They hardly have a third world military force. Al Qaeda looks on secular Iraq with as much enmity as the US. Iraq a threat to the US or neighbors?! Be serious.

My take: The ground war cannot happen before March 3. It will take that long before the military, political and diplomatic components are lined up. But the US administration is extremely isolated in its desire for war. The general who fought the last war questions Rumsfeld's logic and stability. The Joint Chiefs are split about timing. NATO is divided. Many UN Security Council members voice strong opposition to war. Only tiny Arab nations are ready to stick their necks out to give support for a US invasion. Nation after nation has polls showing massive opposition to war. The US Congress is even back-pedaling as US opinion polls show growing questions about a US war. The list of supporting nations is pretty flimsy. The UN inspectors have not found WMD's nor any facilities that could make them nor any delivery system.

Yes, the Administration could go to war anyway. Perhaps an arm-twisting buy out of UN votes as happened last fall? Can we trust that the disastrous consequences of such an act would deter any leader from proceeding? Increased insecurity for the US and Europe, possible collapse of Arab governments that have been allies, collapsed economies worldwide with high oil prices, and some nice pocket money for the weapons manufacturers.

How can we provide a face-saving out for President Bush? It is a nice sunny day here in Amman. Let's not have a war.

Peace to you and your world, Cliff Kindy